The Odds of a Solana (SOL) ETF Listing in the United States
The chances of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) being listed on a US exchange this year have increased significantly, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research. In a recent post on X, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as "underpriced," suggesting that the actual odds are even higher.
Polymarket’s Forecast
On January 1st, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket predicted that the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 were around 77%. This figure has since increased to approximately 84% as of January 2nd, according to Polymarket’s website. While this may seem like a relatively high probability, Sigel believes it is still an underestimate.
Sigel’s Optimism
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industry-wide expectations that more crypto ETF listings will be approved in the US following President-elect Donald Trump’s election win. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory, Sigel reportedly stated that the odds of a SOL ETF being listed in the US were now "overwhelmingly high."
Industry Expectations
The election of Trump has given rise to industry-wide optimism regarding crypto ETF listings. Several asset managers, including VanEck and 21Shares, have sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. However, these plans have faced challenges from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has raised concerns that SOL may be considered a security rather than a commodity.
Grantor Trust Structure
The success of proposed Solana ETFs may hinge on their ability to conform to a grantor trust structure, typically used by funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs are the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges, and they use this structure.
Trump’s Presidential Win
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. Trump has expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital," which has sparked hopes that he will be supportive of cryptocurrency markets.
Bullish Bettors
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, with nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. The odds of a Solana ETF listing are just one indicator of this bullish sentiment.
The Significance of an ETF Listing
An ETF listing would provide institutional investors with easier access to the Solana market, potentially driving up demand and prices. This could also increase adoption of Solana as a payment method or store of value, further validating its use case.
Conclusion
While Polymarket’s forecast may seem optimistic, Sigel believes that the actual odds are even higher. With industry-wide expectations and Trump’s presidential win sparking hopes for increased support for cryptocurrency markets, it seems likely that 2025 will be a significant year for Solana and other cryptocurrencies.
Key Statistics:
- Polymarket predicted a 77% chance of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 on January 1st.
- As of January 2nd, the odds had increased to approximately 84%.
- VanEck and 21Shares have sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs.
- The SEC has raised concerns that SOL may be considered a security rather than a commodity.
Related Articles:
- "Betting Markets Predict Bullish 2025 for Crypto"
- "Favorable Listing Prospects"
- "Magazine: How crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025"
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