A review of data from two popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, reveals that traders are wagering on a banner year for cryptocurrency markets in 2025. The data indicates that bettors expect Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) to reach record highs, as well as the United States greenlighting new types of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Record High Expectations
As of December 26, Kalshi prices more than 60% odds of BTC reaching at least $125,000 and ETH reaching at least $5,000 in 2025. Polymarket sets 50% odds of BTC touching $120,000 before the end of March. To date, Bitcoin’s record high is around $108,300, and Ether’s is around $4,720.
| Platform | BTC Price Target (2025) | ETH Price Target (2025) |
| — | — | — |
| Kalshi | At least $125,000 (60% odds) | At least $5,000 (60% odds) |
| Polymarket | Up to $120,000 (50% odds) | Not specified |
ETF Expectations
Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors expect US regulators to greenlight XRP, Solana, and Litecoin ETFs by July 31, with probabilities of around 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively. They set the odds of a Dogecoin ETF approval by then at around 22%. Kalshi users see a 59% chance that US President-elect Donald Trump will create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve during his presidency.
| Platform | XRP ETF Approval (July 31) | SOL ETF Approval (July 31) | LTC ETF Approval (July 31) | DOGE ETF Approval (July 31) |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| Polymarket | 75% odds | 69% odds | 51% odds | 22% odds |
| Kalshi | Not specified | Not specified | Not specified | Not specified |
Polymarket and Kalshi: A New Era in Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have gained popularity, particularly with the rise of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. These platforms allow users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.
- How prediction markets work: Users can buy and sell contracts tied to specific events, such as political elections or cryptocurrency price movements.
- Dynamic pricing: Prices are adjusted in real-time based on market demand and supply, ensuring that the odds reflect the collective wisdom of the market participants.
Conflicting Signals
Compared to betting platforms, conventional futures markets anticipate more modest gains for cryptocurrencies in the first quarter of 2025. Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) are pricing in March spot prices of roughly $98,000 for BTC and $3,500 for ETH.
| Platform | BTC Price Target (March 2025) | ETH Price Target (March 2025) |
| — | — | — |
| CME | Roughly $98,000 | Roughly $3,500 |
The Role of Futures Contracts
Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an underlying asset at a future date. They play a critical role in hedging strategies and are also popular for speculation.
- Hedging strategies: Investors can use futures contracts to mitigate potential losses by locking in prices for assets they hold.
- Speculation: Traders can use futures contracts to bet on price movements, potentially earning profits if their predictions come true.
Conclusion
Bettors are wagering big on cryptocurrency markets in 2025, with record high expectations for Bitcoin and Ether. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have proven to be more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Whether these predictions come true remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the cryptocurrency market is always evolving, with new trends and technologies emerging every day. As investors and traders, it’s essential to stay informed and adapt to changing market conditions.
Related Articles
- Why tech giants like Amazon may hesitate to adopt Bitcoin
- Explore more articles like this
- Subscribe to the Markets Outlook newsletter: Get critical insights to spot investment opportunities, mitigate risks, and refine your trading strategies. Delivered every Monday.
Subscribe
By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
