
Long-term Holders Reduce Exposure as Institutional Buying Remains Crucial for Price Breakout
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has reached nearly $100,000 due to its recent breakout, but some long-term holders may be tempted to sell their holdings. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that these investors have begun reducing their exposure to BTC.
Long-Term Holders Reduce Exposure to BTC
Glassnode tracks the 30-day net position change among long-term holder (LTH) entities, which are wallets holding a given amount of BTC for at least 155 days. These LTHs represent the less speculative end of the Bitcoin investor spectrum.
After accumulating most of their holdings over the past six months, LTHs have flipped to net sellers. On November 20th, the LTH net position decrease reached 245,000 BTC compared to 30 days previously. This represents the largest comparative 30-day reduction since April.
Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change
### Glassnode's Data on Long-Term Holders' Net Position Change
| Date | LTH Net Position Change (BTC) |
|------------|-------------------------------|
| Nov 20 | -245,000 |
| Oct 25 | +123,000 |
| Sep 30 | +187,000 |
| Aug 31 | +105,000 |
| Jul 28 | -145,000 |
Crypto Analyst Warns of Sell Pressure
Responding to this trend, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher suggested that only large-scale buying pressure could meaningfully counter the LTH sell trend. At the top of the list are the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
"ETF flows must remain strong or else long-term holder sell pressure may catch up to the market," he warned in an X post.
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Flows
### Farside Investors' Data on US Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Flows
| Date | ETF Net Inflows (USD million) |
|------------|-------------------------------|
| Nov 20 | +$770 |
| Oct 25 | +$320 |
| Sep 30 | +$450 |
| Aug 31 | +$230 |
| Jul 28 | -\$120 |
ETF Inflows Struggle to Counter LTH Activity
Even the record net inflows seen over the past month, which boosted the industry with the launch of options trading, have struggled to counter LTH activity.
### Bitcoin LTH vs. ETF Net Position Change
| Date | LTH Net Position Change (BTC) | ETF Net Inflows (USD million) |
|------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------|
| Nov 20 | -245,000 | +$770 |
| Oct 25 | +123,000 | +$320 |
| Sep 30 | +187,000 | +$450 |
Bitcoiners Hold Significant Unrealized Profits
Continuing, Glassnode acknowledged that Bitcoin holders of all kinds are now firmly in the black, with supply dynamics apt to change as a result.
"As the profitability of market investors increases, the elevated potential for new sell-side pressure comes into play," it wrote in its latest edition of ‘The Week Onchain’ newsletter released on November 20th.
Researchers highlighted the market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, which measures almost as much as Bitcoin’s old $73,800 peak in March.
"Bitcoin’s price has recently broken above the +1σ band, located at $89.5k," they commented on deviations in realized price. "This signals that investors are now holding statistically significant unrealized profits, and suggests an increased likelihood of profit-taking activities."
Bitcoin MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands
### Glassnode's Data on Bitcoin MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands
| Date | MVRV Value (USD) |
|------------|----------------------------|
| Nov 20 | +$89,500 |
| Oct 25 | +$82,000 |
| Sep 30 | +$75,000 |
Crypto Bull Markets Often See Long Phases of "Overheated" Metrics
Glassnode added that crypto bull markets often see long phases of ‘overheated’ metrics. Nevertheless, the market has historically remained in this overheated state for extended periods of time, especially when supported by sufficiently large capital inflows to absorb sell-side pressure.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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