According to a recent survey conducted by Gallup, two-thirds of Americans (66%) expect the stock market to rise in 2025. This marks a significant increase from the previous year’s outlook, where only 36% predicted gains.
Growing Optimism for Stock Market
Gallup’s survey polled up to 100,000 people registered in its multimode panel between December 4-15, almost a month after Republican Donald Trump won the US presidential election. The results show a growing optimism among Americans regarding the stock market’s performance in 2025.
Positive Predictions for Economy
The survey also revealed that:
- 54% of respondents expect increasing or full employment, indicating a positive outlook on the labor market.
- 52% predicted reasonable price growth, showing confidence in the economy’s ability to sustain stable prices.
- 66% tipped 2025 as a year when the stock market rises, marking a significant increase from the previous year’s prediction.
Increased Expectations for Economic Difficulty
Despite the overall positive predictions, a larger share of respondents (43%) saw 2025 as more likely to be a "year of economic difficulty" amid a rising federal budget deficit and an increase in China’s power. This suggests that while Americans are optimistic about the stock market, they also anticipate challenges ahead.
Partisan Divide
The survey split responses between Republicans, Democrats, and independents. The results show that:
- Republicans were more optimistic for 2025 than Democrats, with 73% of Republicans expecting a positive outcome compared to 56% of Democrats.
- Independents fell in between, with 63% predicting gains.
Implications for Crypto Markets
The survey’s findings may have implications for the crypto markets. A sustained rise in the stock market can often coincide with a Bitcoin rally, as investors become more willing to take risks. However, increased conflict and economic difficulty could lead to a less favorable macro environment for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Historical Correlation Between Stock Market and Bitcoin
Data from Bitcoin analytics platform Newhedge shows that Bitcoin has a volatile correlation to the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) index. While some industry executives argue that Bitcoin’s price movements are more closely tied to tech stocks, historical data suggests that increased conflict can lead to decreased investor confidence.
Past Events
- Iran bombed Israel in April 2023, causing a significant drop in Bitcoin prices.
- Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, leading to a sharp decline in Bitcoin values.
- The local US banking system showed signs of fragility in early 2023 when several banks collapsed, resulting in a brief rally for Bitcoin.
Economic Difficulty and China’s Increasing Power
Gallup noted that overall, this year’s predictions offered more positivity than they did in 2022. However, a larger share of respondents saw 2025 as more likely to be a "year of economic difficulty" amid a rising federal budget deficit and an increase in China’s power.
Conclusion
The Gallup survey provides valuable insights into Americans’ expectations for 2025. While two-thirds expect the stock market to rise, there is also increased concern about economic difficulty and conflict. The implications for crypto markets are uncertain, but historical data suggests that a sustained rise in the stock market can coincide with a Bitcoin rally.
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