Here is a summary of the news articles:
Economy and Business
- The OECD predicts UK growth of 0.9% this year and 1.7% in 2025, driven by increased public expenditure.
- The global economy is expected to grow by 3.2% this year and 3.3% next year.
- Interest rates are predicted to drop to 3.5% by the start of 2026, down from the current rate of 4.75%.
- Inflation is expected to remain above the Bank of England’s 2% target rate for the next two years.
UK Economy
- The OECD warns that UK inflation and interest rates will fall by less than expected over the next two years due to significant spending and borrowing in Rachel Reeves’ Labour budget.
- Traders are keeping a close eye on a confidence vote in the French parliament, which could see prime minister Michel Barnier ousted.
Financial Markets
- The euro dipped against sterling this morning, with a pound worth £1.207.
- French bonds have fallen, with the 10-year yield rising marginally.
- Contracts providing protection against euro moves are in demand, with the volatility premium at its highest level since Emmanuel Macron called a snap election in June.
Business and Industry
- The number of London-listed companies leaving the stock exchange due to takeovers is at its highest level for a decade, with 45 companies de-listing so far this year.
- Major deals include the sale of video game company Keywords Studios to private equity firm EQT and cybersecurity business Darktrace to Thoma Bravo.
Market Trends
- The "luxury shaming" currently seen in China is expected to fade over the next one to two years, with a shift away from the ‘quiet luxury’ trend back to more overt displays of wealth.
- Consumers in China are expected to regain confidence buoyed by economic stimulus.
Investment and Trading
- Investors are preparing for heavy swings in the single currency due to the French vote.
- Traders are keeping a close eye on the outcome of the confidence vote, which could impact financial markets.
